There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.
I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
Last week shareholders were surprised to find that Anglo American (OTC: AAUKY) had moved from the Nasdaq to the OTC "pink sheets" with no press release, news or explanation on the company website (see AAUK: Now you see it, now you don't).
After a few inquiries to the company, I received notice that the site had been updated with a full explanation. What I learned is that the Nasdaq listing was not done by Anglo but by several banks that held unsponsored ADR shares and were trading the stock.
Finally I was able to find the smallest crumb of news regarding Anglo American's (OTC: AAUKY) move from the NASDAQ to the over-the-counter (OTC) exchange often referred to as the "pink sheets."
After searching all day yesterday under every rock I could find for an answer to the puzzle and coming up empty, I concluded that this mystery could only be the work of Sherlock Holmes's evil and brilliant nemesis Professor Moriarty. And fitting to the good professor's habit of only leaving the most meager of clues, the following is all I could find to date:
This morning I looked up Anglo American ADR and could not find it. What I found was: "No listing under this symbol". I checked another financial site and nothing. I check the company web site and I found under investor information USD NASDAQ 0.00. Now it was getting very strange.
There was no news anywhere, how could that be?
It turns out that the company is now listed on the "pink sheets", "over the counter" as Anglo American PLC ADS (OTC: AAUKY). There was no news Friday, no news over the weekend, no news this morning, no information under the old symbol, the new symbol or the web site, and no broker knew why there was a change, just that it happened.
Where on earth can you buy things on sale for less than bargain prices?
Imagine that you were shopping for a nice shirt, or watch, or bicycle and you have been tracking the prices all year (or ten) and the thing finally goes on sale. You drive to the store and while you are in transit, unknown to you, the store manager puts a half price sticker on the item. You would be overjoyed with glee! To buy something at half the price you already thought was a bargain -- that would be amazing!
The fact is that this year the stock market has provided that opportunity. This year for the first time in most of our lives, you were able to do that to a degree that we have not witnessed before and have only read about.
In a race, when the yellow caution flag is out drivers are prohibited from advancing their position, and are subject to penalty.
In the stock market no such rule applies. When the caution flag goes up it is a sign you may be nearing an opportunity to advance your position, and it would be foolish not to do so. I think the market has definitely had the caution flag up the last two weeks as we enter earnings season.
I have written several articles regarding watch-lists encouraging our readers to be prepared for buying opportunities, and as I look at my watch-list it appears that many stocks are nearing prices that would make it attractive to add to my position.
The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.
The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.
This is a continuation of a theme I have been writing about this year involving stock options referred to as naked puts.
This allows investors to take a position in a stock, most often below its current price, but depending on market sentiment. That sentiment remains relatively negative so the spreads are attractive.
I have been following BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (NYSE: BHP) the largest mining company in the world, with headquarters in Australia, for a while but I do not own the stock today. I view all mining companies as an opportunity because I think the diversified raw materials they control are the best hedge against inflation. I do not think inflation is imminent, but with the extreme increases in money supply and debt being created I do not think it will be avoidable a few years out.
It was reported on Sunday, June 21, that Anglo-Swiss mining company Xstrata has proposed a merger of equals to the board of Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK), hoping to create a new, more competitive mining giant. Rumors have been milling about for a while.
Together, Anglo American and Xstrata would have a market capitalization of approximately $68 billion, (AAUK's $35 billion + XTA.L's $33 billion) and be larger than Rio Tinto plc ADS (NYSE: RTP), which ended the trading day last Friday with a capitalization hovering over $42 billion.
The year started off with continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before --trillions further in debt, most likely.
Not that this is his doing, but it is his chosen calling, and right now he is calling out to the Congress to move forward on various contentious budget proposals and continued federal stimulus packages.
It was only yesterday that AAUK was downgraded from neutral to underweight by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). No doubt they were responding to the news that Standard & Poors cut Anglo's rating two notches to 'BBB' based on it's 40% leverage and the potential for its cash-flow and income to be impacted by continuing soft markets throughout the year in many commodities.
UBS upgraded Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) to Buy from Neutral but lowered its target to $42 from $45 following the solid Q4 report. The firm expects Dollar Tree's cost containment to continue. JP Morgan upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral on valuation as it believes the recent pullback is overdone and the company set achievable FY09 guidance. The firm has a $43 target on the stock.
JP Morgan also upgraded Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation as they find the stock oversold at current levels.
KeyBanc upgraded Nordson (NASDAQ: NDSN) to Hold from Underweight based on valuation, strong balance sheet and cost reductions, and a solid track record of execution.
I knew it would happen to some of my stock picks this year -- but ouch! -- Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) has reported that it is handing out 19,000 pink slips world wide, oh, by the way, you can forget about the dividend -- that's gone too.
Kings of Customer Service: Keeping Customer Loyalty in a Recession Business Week's annual list of customer service stars shows companies using creative strategies to retain customer loyalty in the recession. Topping the list this year is Amazon.com who are giving customers more choice. Other customer service champs include Lexus, Publix Supermarkets, Zappos.com, HP, Ace Hardware, USAA Insurance, Trader Joe's, Enterprise Rent-a-Car, Marriott and Charles Schwalb. http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/02/0219_customer_service/index.htm?technology+slideshows
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction. 
Last week shareholders were surprised to find that 
Where on earth can you buy things on sale for less than bargain prices?
In a race, when the yellow caution flag is out drivers are prohibited from advancing their position, and are subject to penalty.
The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: 
It was reported on Sunday, June 21, that Anglo-Swiss mining company 
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Why is gold marching higher? Ask the central bankers
Newspaper ad revenue of 28%, 8 quarters of double-digit drops
Closing Bell: Earnings working against stocks (BCRX, DELL, DHI, INTC, LEAP, PCS)
